Ilyana Yotova and Kiril Valchev are leading with 50.2% ahead of the 25 October presidential election, a poll by Sova Harris, commissioned for the vote, shows.

Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev have 23.7%, Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin get 12.7%, and 13.4% would back another pair. These figures cover only people who have already made up their minds.

With these numbers, the race goes to a runoff between Yotova and Valchev on one side and Gyurov and Kandev on the other, the agency says. Attitudes from the last parliamentary election have held steady, and the core supporters of the three leading pairs differ in size, with none of the candidates drawing much support beyond their base.

Fewer than 50% of voters have decided who to back. Pollsters expect just under 2.5 million people to vote in the first round.

The poll was carried out between 23 and 28 September across Bulgaria, with face-to-face interviews at the homes of 1,000 adults. The margin of error is 3.1% at a 50% share, with 95% confidence. The figures cover only people living in Bulgaria, not voters abroad.

Among politicians, Yotova is the most trusted, on 45.7%, followed by prime minister Rumen Radev on 44.6%. Gyurov leads the rest with 19.4%, followed by Kostadinov on 17.2%, Krum Zarkov on 15.2%, Asen Vasilev on 14.7%, Radan Kanev on 12.8%, Bozhidar Bozhanov on 12.6% and Ivaylo Mirchev on 12.5%. Next come Radostin Vasilev on 11.1%, Boyko Borissov on 10%, Ivelin Mihaylov on 8% and Delyan Peevski on 2.7%.

Among institutions, the Bulgarian Orthodox Church is trusted most, at 58%, followed by the police on 47.5%, the army on 46.9% and the presidency on 46.8%. The government stands at 35.1%, parliament at 20.2%, the courts at 18.8% and the prosecution at 16.2%.

Asked what worries them most, 53.7% point to high prices and inflation. Bad governance worries 13.6%, corruption and the state of the courts 12.5%, unemployment and low pay 10.1%, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East 7.7%.

34.8% call the Radev government's record fairly successful, while 44.6% call it fairly unsuccessful, 20.6% gave no view.

58.4% agree with Radev that there is no military solution in Ukraine and that the EU should seek talks with Russia, 18% disagree, and 23.6% have no view. 46.5% back the idea of Ukraine making peace by giving up territory, 26.1% are against, and 27.4% did not answer.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has called Russian energy "toxic" and said it should be phased out in the long run — a view shared by just 12% of those asked. 65.8% disagree, and 22.2% have no view.

39.4% say it was right to raise the pardon granted to the Petrich drug lord during the campaign, 35.8% call it wrong, and 24.8% gave no view. 43.7% say it was right to bring up details of the "Petrohan" case during the campaign, 31.1% say it was not, and 25.2% have no view.