Turnout in Sunday's presidential election on 25 October will be about 40%, or between 2.6m and 2.7m people, Alpha Research predicts. It was 37% at the start of the campaign.

The ticket of Iliana Yotova and Kiril Valchev leads with 41.1% of those who are sure to vote, but support for her is falling. The drop is statistically significant.

Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev are second with 28.3%, and Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are third with 12.8%. The agency says both tickets have gained ground.

Radostin Vasilev has 3.9%, Ivan Hristanov 3.6% and Ivelin Mihaylov 3.4%. They are far behind, but support for them has grown during the campaign.

People in the poll were also asked about the government's response to the drone attacks in the Black Sea. Some 19% say it was fully adequate. Another 37% think the cabinet should have sought more active help from the EU and Nato, while 24% think it should have stayed fully neutral.

At the end of September, a third of those polled said they might change their choice. One in five made up their mind in the last month, and another 17% will decide in the days before the vote. The undecided are most often people who voted for DPS and GERB in April, followed by those who backed Progressive Bulgaria. Alpha Research says the vote for a preferred candidate is much more stable.

Trend data show that 47% of adult Bulgarian citizens living in Bulgaria, or just under 2.5 million people, say they are interested in the election. That figure has not changed.

Alpha Research carried out its poll from 18 to 22 October 2026 across the whole country and paid for it from its own funds. It questioned 1,000 adults using a two-stage sample with quotas for the main social and demographic traits. Interviewers spoke to people face to face at home, using tablets and a standard questionnaire.