Bulgaria's economy will grow by between 2.5% and 2.8% in 2026, not by 3% as the finance ministry forecasts. That's the assessment of the Fiscal Council, given in its opinion on the autumn macroeconomic forecast published yesterday.

The Council calls the 2027-2029 scenario realistic and within a reasonable range, but says some of the assumptions and the 2026 forecast itself are too optimistic or not backed up enough.

The finance ministry expects gross domestic product to grow by 3% in real terms in 2026 and by 2.5% in 2027. For 2028 and 2029 it forecasts 2.4% each year. The Fiscal Council gives different figures — 2.8% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027. For 2028 the Council expects growth to slow to 1.5% as the wider economy cools.

The 3% figure sits at the top end of the estimates and would require quarterly growth to speed up in the second half of the year, the Council notes. Data on industrial output, retail trade and employment up to September don't back up such a speed-up.

The ministry expects average annual inflation of 4.8% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The Council sees the 2026 figure as realistic and calls next year's forecast rather cautious. It also finds the unemployment forecast of around 3.4% acceptable. Nominal GDP is expected to reach around 130.5 billion euros in 2026 and 141.3 billion euros in 2027. These figures line up with each other. But the Council says the sharp drop in the deflator after 2026 is not explained.

The Council points to several main risks to growth and nominal GDP: higher energy prices and interest rates, budget tightening under the excessive deficit procedure, and the end of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, of which around 70% had been spent as of 31 August 2026. The Council also warns lending and the housing market could cool down.

The Fiscal Council is asking the ministry to either justify or slightly lower its 2026 growth forecast, to lay out a full alternative scenario with figures, and to spell out its assumptions on fiscal policy. When planning the 2027 budget, the Council is calling for caution on revenue forecasts and for a big enough buffer in case the economy performs worse than expected.