Iliana Yotova and Kiril Valchev lead the race for the 25 October presidential election with 44.9% of those who have decided to vote, a Gallup International Balkan poll shows. Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev follow with 24.8%.
The agency says that on current voting intentions a runoff between these two tickets is the most likely outcome, given the large gap to the rest and low turnout. It expects between 2.3m and 2.4m voters, about 36%, which is lower than at the last parliamentary election.
Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are third with 10.9%. Among the other tickets, Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova have 4.1%, and Radostin Vasilev and Krasimir Manov 2.6%. Nikolay Nenchev and Tsveta Kirilova get 2.1%, Ivaylo Simeonov and Kosyo Stoychev 1.7%, and Ivelin Mihaylov and Yuliana Mateeva 1.6%.
GERB and DPS have no candidates in the presidential race. More than half of their supporters are unlikely to vote, following their parties' decision to stay out. Gallup says this is a large pool of voters. If they turn out in the second round, they could change the balance of power and the final result.
Gallup says 52.8% of those firmly set on voting made up their minds before the campaign began, and their vote is "traditional". This points to stable, loyal cores around the forces behind the leading candidates. Such voters are less likely to be swayed by short-term events like political scandals, leaked compromising material and media rows.
Another 34.7%, or one in three, settle on their final choice during the campaign. A further 12.5% decide at the very end: 9.8% in the last days before the vote and 2.7% on election day itself. The agency says they cannot change the overall picture alone, but with low turnout they could have an effect.
For 38.9% of citizens, the candidate's personality, not the party behind them, decides the vote. Which parties back a candidate decides the choice for 24.4%, foreign policy stances and geopolitical leanings for 15.6%, and the overall election programme for 10.1% of those polled. Gallup International Balkan says: "This is an indicator that a significant part of society sees the presidential race not only through the prism of domestic politics, but also as a choice about Bulgaria's international positioning."
Gallup says the parties behind a candidate matter most among hard-core party voters, where the presidential vote follows established preferences. Support in the first round does not automatically carry over to the second. That depends on how voters of eliminated candidates act, how well the parties mobilise their core voters, and whether the finalists can win over wavering voters. The campaign could shift the gaps, especially in the middle of the field.
The poll is nationally representative and ran from 26 September to 6 October 2026. Interviewers held 987 face-to-face interviews with Bulgarian adults, using tablets. Gallup International Balkan paid for it from its own funds as part of its independent research programme.