Artificial intelligence (AI) and its effect on jobs was the topic of the fifth annual research conference of the Institute for Social and Trade Union Research and Training (ISSIO), part of the KNSB trade union confederation. Speakers covered China's experience, how the EU can create lasting jobs that include everyone, and how social policies should adapt. They also discussed the situation in the EU and the US.
Assoc. Prof. Lyuboslav Kostov of ISSIO, who also teaches at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE), said that in this industrial revolution, once the technology is in place, capital's share of added value grows while labour's share shrinks. "We are witnessing a reversal of the classic economic relationships taught at universities," he said.
Kostov said AI is changing the unit of measure for civilisation. What matters now is no longer how much energy is produced, but how many calculations per second are made with one watt.
In the US, 5% of the electricity generated goes to data centres. In Virginia the figure is 25%, and in Ireland 20%. Kostov said such a large share creates a local "singularity" of resources and a heavy geopolitical dependence on energy grids. He also said development will not stop even if all governments adopt restrictive rules, because AI gives a huge competitive edge, economic, military and artistic.
KNSB president Plamen Dimitrov called attempts around the world to let the job market regulate itself worrying. He said digital technologies are developing differently from country to country. The topic is not yet discussed in Bulgaria, he said, but the country needs to follow the trend.
Kalina Drenska of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation Bulgaria said there is concern about the influence of AI, and that science can help bring it under control and help people understand the processes. "I cannot imagine how much power can be left to someone and how they can be told to control themselves," she added.
Prof. Venelin Boshnakov, chief secretary of UNWE, said many changes are under way, but the job market will need people for a long time yet. He said digitalisation will affect all workers, even at lower levels.
Assoc. Prof. Teodora Peneva presented a report on robots in China. The country has been the biggest user of industrial robots since 2013, mostly in car making. Conveyor work, welding, painting and loading are the first to be automated. Operators move to overseeing production lines, and Peneva said work in robot maintenance and programming is growing.
Wages in China fall most among mid-skilled workers. The report says robots make workers change jobs more often, and the data show that firms with more robots face more disputes over layoffs, transfers and pay.
Dimitrov said the effects of AI on the job market are yet to be analysed and assessed.